Understanding the Nuclear Renaissance
🚦 The World Bank’s new energy policy includes nuclear energy.
The Bank erected a wall on funding nuclear energy after its only reactor loan—US $40 million for Italy’s 150 MW Garigliano plant in 1959. A “no-nukes” clause was later hard-wired into the energy strategy Toward a Sustainable Energy Future for All (2013).
Nuclear energy is at a very interesting juncture with a lot of smart money flowing into the sector. The nine bullets below condense the heavyweight literature into one-paragraph “why it matters” blurbs, each anchored by a single resource and a datapoint.
1 | State-of-the-Sector Benchmark
Resource: OECD NEA & IEA Projected Costs of Generating Electricity (2015-23 series)
Numbers that stick: at a 3 % discount rate, nuclear LCOE ranges from US $29/MWh (Korea) to $64/MWh (UK); overnight capital spans US $2 021–6 215 /kW.
Gist: Even before fuel or decommissioning, cap-ex determines destiny. Those ranges show why a cheap sovereign cost of capital is worth more than any turbine tweak.
2 | Current Market Price Signal
Resource: Lazard LCOE + 2024
Numbers that stick: FOAK nuclear shows a midpoint US $182/MWh, vs. on-shore wind $50–61/MWh.
Gist: The spread—roughly 3×—is the reason policy designers reach for Contracts-for-Difference (CfDs) and tax credits; without them, new nuclear is still priced out of merchant markets.
3 | How CfDs Work in Practice
Resource: Hinkley Point C Wikipedia (full economics section)
Numbers that stick: Strike price £92.5/MWh (2012 money), inflation-linked for 35 years; UK National Audit Office now pegs top-up cost to consumers at £29.7 billion.
Gist: One number—£92.5—explains why investors love revenue certainty and why treasury officials fret. Use it as the global reference point for nuclear CfD negotiations.
4 | Politics & Public Acceptance
Resource: IAEA Climate Change & Nuclear Power 2022
Numbers that stick: IAEA’s high-case projection sees global nuclear output rising 120 % by 2050—but only if public-acceptance hurdles are cleared.
Gist: The figure quantifies what’s at stake: doubling-plus nuclear generation hinges on winning hearts, not just spreadsheets.
5 | Technology Frontier—Factory-Built SMRs
Resource: Unlocking the Nuclear Hydrogen Economy (UK Government)
Numbers that stick: First 470 MW unit £2.2 bn; cost falls 20 % to £1.8 bn by the fifth build; target 500-day construction window.
Gist: These numbers put hard contours around the SMR hype—no cheaper than large reactors today, but learning-curve maths says repeat builds beat big-bang one-offs.
6 | Real-Time Fleet Snapshot
Resource: IAEA Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) —World Statistics (updated 21 May 2025)
Numbers that stick: 416 reactors operational worldwide, 376 GW net capacity.
Gist: A simple ratio: every 1 % capacity-factor uptick equals about one large reactor’s annual output—useful for benchmarking life-extension plans vs. new-build dreams.
7 | Finance-Nerd Commute Listen
Resource: SMR Economics and the Nuclear Secret Sauce
For SMRs to be viable, firms like Rolls-Royce need sustained orders (around 10 GW total) to build credible supply chains .
The episode offers a sober evaluation: SMRs aren’t “cheap mini-nukes”—they face real economic constraints. Roulstone explains the trade-offs: reduced project risk and shorter build times vs. potentially higher per-MW costs
8 | Deep-Dive Weekend Read
Resource: MIT Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World (2018)
Numbers that stick: To compete with gas and renewables, nuclear overnight costs must hit < US $2 000/kW and project durations < 5 years.
Gist: The study’s cost–time targets remain the gold standard for “bankable” nuclear—even SMR vendors still quote them.